BIMCO reports that coal shipments to advanced economies will fall 2% in 2025, reaching their lowest level in more than two decades, driven largely by weaker coking coal demand amid declining steel production in Europe, Japan and South Korea. Coking coal imports are down 10% year over year, while thermal coal shipments have shown a brief 1% uptick due to higher electricity demand in parts of Europe and Asia. Panamax and capesize vessels continue to carry most of these cargoes, though Panamax ships have gained market share through price competition. BIMCO expects a potential recovery in Europe’s coking coal demand next year as steel demand rises, but notes that long-term demand will weaken as recycled steel production grows. Thermal coal imports are forecast to keep declining as renewable energy capacity accelerates across major advanced economies.
