Drewry’s estimated a theoretical officer shortfall, reaching record levels by 2027, with a gap of more than 55 thousand positions representing more than 7% of total demand. While officer-rank seafarer supply growth has remained weak in recent years, averaging annual growth of 0.8% since 2018, demand for more crew is increasing with the global merchant vessel fleet accelerating. Changing patterns in the transportation of oil and gas following the war in Ukraine and the recovery in offshore oil & gas markets have further squeezed seafarer supply. Based on the above trends, Drewry forecasts further tightening of officer availability, which will feed into higher manning and ship operating costs. But the impact will vary by vessel type dependent on their senior officer requirements.
