As oil prices hover around US$60 a barrel, Canada’s energy sector is watching two key developments: upcoming visits from U.S. President Donald Trump and OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais to Alberta in June. Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+ production increases have contributed to downward pressure on global oil prices, creating uncertainty for investment and provincial revenues. The OPEC+ alliance is set to further raise output in July, while Trump’s tariff policies face legal challenges but remain influential. Analysts warn that without supply cuts, prices may stay in the low US$60s or even fall into the US$50s next year, potentially creating a significant budget shortfall for Alberta. Despite global demand headwinds, Canada may benefit from narrower heavy oil differentials due to the Trans Mountain expansion and improved natural gas prospects tied to LNG Canada.
