Worsening global port congestion is temporarily supporting the container shipping market by effectively removing around 2.3 million TEU, or 6.6% of the global containership fleet, from available capacity, three times the pre-pandemic level. Schedule reliability fell sharply to 56.4% in July, with Asian ports particularly affected by congestion and typhoons, including Shanghai where reliability dropped to just 21%. While the disruption is helping absorb excess tonnage, the effect could unwind within months just as substantial new capacity enters the market and carriers progressively return Asia-Europe services to the Suez Canal. Sea-Intelligence estimates a full normalization of Suez routings could reduce global head-haul TEU-mile demand by 8.7% year over year in the first half of 2027, creating significant oversupply risk given that the containership orderbook is already around 40% of the existing fleet.
