According to AgPulse Analytica, Russia is predicted to ship more peas to China than Canada in the 2023-24 period. Jain forecasts that Russia will export 1.2 million tonnes of peas, while Canada will export one million tonnes. This shift in the market occurred after Russia and China signed a phytosanitary agreement in December 2022, allowing Russian peas to enter the Chinese market. Although there has been a slow start to the trade route, with China importing relatively small amounts of Russian peas in March and April, Jain anticipates a rapid increase in imports to 70,000-80,000 tonnes by July. The lower price of Russian peas, at $310 per tonne delivered to inland China compared to Canadian exporters charging $400-$410 per tonne delivered to east coast ports, is expected to be a significant factor in the increased demand for Russian peas. Jain predicts that this competition from Russia will put downward pressure on Canadian prices. Russia’s pea production is forecasted to be 3.15 million tonnes, resulting in a total supply of 4.62 million tonnes, giving Russia a one million-tonne advantage over Canada.
While Canada will remain the world’s leading pea exporter, Jain estimates it will ship 2.35 million tonnes in 2023-24, down from 2.5 million tonnes in the current year. China’s overall imports of peas are expected to increase to 2.3 million tonnes in 2023-24, up from 1.8 million tonnes this year, driven by the lower prices offered by Russia. It is expected that Canada will retain the pea protein business in China. Another notable development is Turkey’s emergence as a significant re-exporter of peas, importing from Russia and Ukraine and shipping to markets such as Iraq.