Global trade growth in 2023 is still expected to be subpar despite a slight upgrade to GDP projections since last fall, WTO economists said in a new forecast on 5 April. Weighed down by the effects of the war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter monetary policy and financial market uncertainty, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 1.7% this year, following 2.7% growth in 2022, a smaller-than-expected increase that was pulled down by a sharp slump in the fourth quarter.
The WTO’s trade projections, set out in the new “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report, estimate real global GDP growth at market exchange rates of 2.4% for 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, trade growth should rebound to 3.2%, as GDP picks up to 2.6%, but this estimate is more uncertain than usual due to the presence of substantial downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, food supply shocks, and the possibility of unforeseen fallout from monetary tightening.
