U.S. dry bulk shipments to China increased 104% year-over-year during the first three quarters of 2026, driven by a 176% rise in grain shipments following reduced tariffs and new agricultural trade commitments. Panamax vessels carried 68% of these volumes, while stronger petcoke trade also supported supramax demand. BIMCO expects U.S. grain exports to accelerate further in the fourth quarter, particularly as Black Sea disruptions constrain Ukrainian supply. Looking ahead, China’s commitment to import at least 10 million tonnes of U.S. coal annually in 2027 and 2028 could provide additional support for dry bulk volumes and tonne-mile demand.
