Despite global merchandise trade falling by a record amount in the first months of the year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Trade Organization (WTO) says that it could have been much worse. WTO forecast in April that global trade in goods would fall by between 13 per cent and 32 per cent in 2020 before rebounding by 21 per cent to 24 per cent in 2021. The WTO has not set new figures on, but they have indicated that rapid responses by governments meant its pessimistic scenario for this year was unlikely to come true. The volume of merchandise trade in fact shrank by 3 per cent in the first quarter, and initial estimates pointed to a year-on-year decline of 18.5 per cent for the second quarter.
